I provide weekly S&P 500 predictions and market forecasts using a systematic approach based on data analysis, not headlines or narratives. Each prediction represents a 95% confidence interval for next week market movements derived from historical patterns and volatility metrics.
I published my first prediction on November 25, 2024 on X.com. Since then, I've been consistently tracking performance and publishing weekly updates.
Learn more about the prediction methodology →🎯 Target range: 5,305–6,636
✅ Track record: 28/29 successful calls
Model stays expanded as US enters Middle East conflict, escalating geopolitical uncertainty to unprecedented levels. Fed stagflation signals compound oil supply shock concerns following nuclear facility strikes.
Multiple uncertainty sources converging across monetary policy, energy markets, and global security dynamics create sustained volatility environment requiring wide forecast parameters.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
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Get Weekly Updates🎯 Target range: 5,406–6,581
✅ Track record: 27/28 successful calls
Model narrows range slightly while maintaining elevated uncertainty parameters driven by escalating Middle East conflict and monetary policy divergence.
Geopolitical shock waves from Israel-Iran exchanges since June 13 created significant risk-off sentiment, with oil markets posting largest single-day gains since March 2022. Fed decision Wednesda>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,242–6,651
✅ Track record: 26/27 successful calls
Model signals potential range narrowing by late July under baseline conditions, but maintains current expanded parameters due to elevated uncertainity patterns.
Trade friction drives central bank divergence — with the ECB cutting rates, the Fed managing inflation pressures, and China–US talks approaching.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,332-6,513
✅ Track record: 25/26 successful calls
Our systematic model keeps an extended range as uncertainty persists around volatile trade policy and emerging legal risks.
Despite a headline-heavy week — EU tariff delays, Nvidia earnings, weak China PMI, and Japan bond stress — markets traded in a tight band.
Such compression often precedes significant moves.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,192-6,348
✅ Track record: 24/25 successful calls
Model maintains wide range heading into Memorial Day week.
Shortened trading schedule and mixed global economic signals contribute to elevated uncertainty.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,407-6,615
✅ Track record: 23/24 successful calls
Our model maintains an expanded range as volatility persists and patterns remain unstable.
In the background: U.S. policy shifts, trade signals from China, and cautious optimism in Europe.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,050-6,296
Markets face persistent macro uncertainty:
US and China reinitiate trade dialogue, China eases policy, and geopolitical tensions linger in Europe. While headlines shift, our model remains grounded in data.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,075-6,330
Wider range reflects ongoing macro uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
Our model adjusts to evolving volatility — systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 4,917–6,127
The wide range reflects elevated uncertainty and volatility, driven by trade tensions, weakening consumer sentiment, and tech-driven sector rotation.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 4,628–5,822
Markets remain unsettled after Powell's remarks and Trump's latest comments.
While headlines fuel uncertainty, my model stays grounded in data.
Systematic over speculative.
🎯 Target range: 4,783–5,918
Markets rebounded after the U.S. postponed most tariffs amid bond market stress.
Even China saw temporary relief in selected export segments. Risk sentiment has shown sign of stabilization, but how long will it last?
The macro backdrop remains complex.
My model doesn't react to headlines.
It tracks data. Systematically.
Through noise and narrative, numbers lead.
🎯 Target range: 4,615–5,379
Wider range reflects heightened post-tariff volatility
Markets remain in risk-off mode as structural uncertainty unfolds
My model stays systematic — not swayed by sentiment
How to interpret: The green bands represent weekly prediction ranges for the S&P 500 index. The red line shows the actual closing values. When the red line stays within the green band, the prediction was accurate. A red dot indicates where the actual value fell outside the predicted range.
This visualization demonstrates the model's accuracy. The width of prediction bands reflects expected market volatility for the given period.
My systematic approach to S&P 500 forecasts provides more than just weekly predictions. By analyzing patterns objectively, these forecasts offer valuable insight into the 2025 market outlook without being influenced by headlines or emotional reactions.
The predicted range widths reflect expected market volatility, which can be particularly useful for position sizing and risk management. During periods of higher predicted volatility, these forecasts can help inform hedging strategies or adjustments to portfolio exposure.
When markets deviate from predicted ranges, this often signals fundamental shifts in market dynamics – information that can be more valuable than the predictions themselves. These structured, data-driven forecasts help identify both potential risks and opportunities that narrative-focused analysis might miss.