RobustQuant is built on a systematic approach to market prediction, primarily focused on the S&P 500 index. The model isn't rocket science – it's mainly based on tracking trends and volatility with a 95% reliability target.
The model provides interval forecasts (upper and lower bounds) rather than point estimates, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in markets. It focuses on capturing natural market movements without human intuition or headline news interference.
When reality steps outside the prediction band, it signals a market regime change – typically indicating a shift in sentiment (risk-off/risk-on). The model then adapts and continues making predictions aligned with the new market setup.
This systematic approach eliminates FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and other behavioral biases. This particular model is part of a broader quantitative framework I use, which together can identify both buying opportunities during market frustration phases and potential exit points during periods of market euphoria.
The first prediction was published on November 25, 2024 on X.com. Since then, the model has provided weekly predictions with approximately 95% of actual values falling within the predicted range.
The model's deviations have coincided with significant market events like the 2025 U.S.-China tariff war, demonstrating its ability to identify structural regime changes and market paradigm shifts.
I enjoy playing with numbers. I studied them and currently maintain several stock portfolios. I started this project to show that data and predictions can be interesting and accessible.
This site serves as a presentation of market dynamics through a quantitative lens – not to make bold claims, but for inspiration, because this is where you can see what's really happening in the markets.